Wind the clocks back a little over a decade and London had just been announced as the host of the 2012 Olympics, the Labour party was running the country, Daniel Craig made his debut as James Bond in Casino Royale, and diesel cars were the thing to buy if you wanted to do your bit for the environment.
How things change. Ignoring the political and sporting fields for a moment; it’s taken less than ten years for diesel cars to fall from grace and into the crosshairs of governments and environmentalists. The irony is, of course, that it was the UK Government, along with its European counterparts, that went to great lengths to promote the uptake of diesel cars. Now there's talk of diesel bans, diesel scrappage schemes and punitive taxation measures to get 'dirty diesels' off UK roads.
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With the tides of legislation and public opinion turning against diesel, we look at how the fuel became popular in the first place, some of the plans currently in place to wean motorists off buying diesel cars, and what the future of the fuel will be.
Why did the UK Government first promote diesel?
In 1998, then-Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said diesel cars should be taxed less than petrol cars as they pollute fewer grams of carbon dioxide (CO2) per kilometre on average. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) estimates diesel cars emit 20 per cent less CO2 per kilometre than their petrol counterparts.
At the time, the Government was focused on cutting CO2 emissions, as these were linked to climate change, so diesel cars seemed the obvious mode of transport to promote. In 2001, Brown introduced the new Vehicle Excise Duty rates that taxed cars with low CO2 emissions less, and in doing so made the diesel option that bit more appealing compared to petrol.
As a result of the new VED bands diesel car ownership surged from 13.8 per cent in 2001 to around 50 per cent today. In 2015 there were around 11.9 million diesel cars on UK’s roads, making ours one of the biggest diesel fleets in Europe.
What caused the shift against diesel?
Though broadly correct about the CO2 emissions benefits diesels have, ministers took nearly a decade to admit they had overlooked the health consequences of loacl air polloution from diesel cars. Former science minister Lord Drayson said that regulators at the time didn’t have a clear idea on the health effects from diesel emissions and that promoting the vehicles “in retrospect was the wrong policy.”
Studies have since shown that particulate matter (PM) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from diesel vehicles are detrimental to health. One of the most prominent studies linked air pollution to 40,000 premature deaths, stating that diesel cars play a major role in releasing toxins to the atmosphere.
Both NOx and particle matter emissions, the latter tiny microscopic particles that can penetrate lung tissue, have been linked to respiratory and circulatory diseases by doctors and researchers.
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Nearly 300 doctors, nurses and other health professionals from campaing group Doctors Against Diesel recently signed a letter urging the Government to do more to remove the current fleet of diesel cars due to their adverse health effects.
Greg Archer, clean vehicles director at campaign group Transport & Environment, said that the Volkswagen Dieselgate emissions scandal was also a big wake up call to the public, as it highlighted that real world emissions from cars are far above the quoted figures obtained under laboratory testing.
The VW emissions scandal along with recent studies showing the health consequences of diesel cars has put pressure on legislators to move the public away from buying diesel cars.
But before diesel is crucified on the emissions altar, it's worth bearing in mind that diesel vehicles aren't the only source of NOx and particle matter pollution. The European Environmental Agency points out that nearly a quarter of all NOx emissions comes from coal and other energy plants.
Even zero-emissions cars won't be pollution free, as a previous study by the University of Edinburgh and engineering company INNAS BV found the extra weight from the battery packs results in higher particle matter emissions.
Because EVs are on average 24 per cent heavier than their petrol or diesel counterparts, the study said their tyres will be under greater stress and wear out quicker, releasing particle matter emissions hidden in the rubber particle into the atmosphere at a faster rate.
Diesel ban in London and other cities
The prevailing consensus that diesel emissions are bad for health has led to many cities looking to ban them from their centres. The mayors of Paris, Mexico City, Madrid and Athens have said they’re looking to ban diesel cars from their centres by 2025.
The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, recently introduced a new £10 ‘toxicity’ charge, dubbed the ‘T-Charge’.
The fee will apply to drivers of petrol and deiesel cars with pre-Euro 4 engines, broadly those registered before 2005, and will work alongside the existing £11.50 congestion charge during the same 7am to 6pm, Monday to Friday, window. The charge will run from 23 October 2017 onwards and is expected to affect up to 10,000 vehicles.
Khan’s plans to reduce pollution levels in the city also include expanding and expediting the Ultra Low Emissions Zone, as well as a faster roll-out of low-emissions double-decker buses.
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The London mayor is proposing to introduce the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone a year earlier than planned in 2019, and extend it beyond central London from 2020 onwards to the North and South Circular. Cars, vans, lorries and buses which fail to meet the emissions criteria would be charged from £12.50 upwards.
Scrappage scheme for diesel cars?
Back in 2009, the Government introduced a £300million plan called the Vehicle Scrappage Scheme. Owners of old cars and vans were encouraged to scrap their old vehicles in return for £1,000 payment from the Governments towards the purchase of a new car.
The idea was that older, more inefficient and higher polluting vehicles would be removed from the roads and replaced with new, environmentally friendly vehicles. The plans drew criticism from a number of motoring and financial organisations who questioned the economics and environmental gains.
The Government has now, however, hinted that a similar programme might be reintroduced exclusively for diesel vehicles. The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has urged the Government to introduce a scrappage scheme for diesel cars and vans in London.
The plan, estimated to cost over £500 million, would give van drivers £3,500 towards the cost of a cleaner model, while lower income households would receive £2,000 which they could use on alternative transport or invest towards a cleaner car.
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Transport secretary, Chris Grayling recently told the Daily Mail that people considering buying diesel cars should “take a long, hard think.” The minister has been said to be in favour of a diesel scrappage scheme.
Grayling also told the House of Commons: “We have to find the right way to migrate the nature of the cars on our roads and the vehicles on our roads to a point where they cause much less of a pollution problem than they do at the moment.”
The future of diesel
“Diesel is amidst a very vicious circle at the moment.” Greg Archer, clean vehicles director at campaign group Transport & Environment told Auto Express. According to Archer, diesel is facing pressure from three different fronts.
“The first is that diesel cars will have to pollute significantly less in the future. With real world emissions testing coming in the next few years, manufacturers will have to find solutions to make diesels pollute far less than they currently do under real world driving. This is going to bring up the cost of production for diesel cars which will make them even more expensive compared to petrol ones.
“The second pressure diesel cars will face is from new technologies like plug-in hybrids and electric cars,” Archer says. “Finally”, he adds, “it’s pressure from cities and legislators. This I believe will be the most significant deterrent to diesel cars.”
Archer says that as more cities consider banning diesels or introducing extra taxes on polluting cars, consumers will quickly make the switch to greener fuels. But that’s not to say diesel cars will disappear overnight.
“We anticipate a market share of 40 to 45 per cent for new cars as an EU average by 2020, compared to 52 per cent today. After 2020, the market will continue to decline to around 30 to 25 per cent of new cars by 2025,” Archer says.
However, the Society of Manufacturers and Traders has pointed out that diesel cars are crucial to meeting the EU target of average new car CO2 emissions of 95g/km by 2021.
The SMMT has revealed average carbon tailpipe emissions from new cars reached an all-time low of 120.1g/km in 2016, much of it thanks to modern diesel engines that are far more efficient than older generations. It said the consumer shift to diesel cars “has been critical to this success.”
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive said: “The automotive industry has some of the most challenging CO2 reduction targets of any sector and continues to deliver reductions as it has for nearly two decades.
“For this positive trend to continue, modern low emission diesels and alternative fuel vehicles such as plug-ins, hydrogen and hybrids must be encouraged with long term incentives. Turning our back on any of these will undermine progress on CO2 targets as well as air quality objectives.”
What does Auto Express think about diesel cars?
Despite the public attention towards diesel emissions, there’s no simple answer to whether you should buy a diesel or a non-diesel car. The important bit is to do your homework very carefully before buying a new car, as it’s very easy to buy a car badly, and very hard to buy a car well.
Any buyer has to think about future-proofing themselves when buying a car - thinking about their needs and finances during the ownership period.
Unfortunately, with legislators swaying different ways over diesel at the moment, it's very difficult to know which way to go - diesel still makes sense for those doing longer journeys and especially in larger vehicles. But do all the sums first to make sure it makes sense for you. And be aware that it seems that future legislation, and possibly taxation, could well penalise diesels - especially in urban areas.
We're also seeing petrol engines become more and more efficient and alternative-fuel vehicles become more and more attractive. All of which puts additional pressure on diesel models.
Will you be buying diesel in the future? Let us know in the comments below…
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